Meet The Manic-Depressive Mr Crypto And His Consolidation Act

Pictured Above: How Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan Chase, Buys Bitcoin

Nov 6, 2018

For those of you that have atleast some interest in crypto assets, such as Bitcoin and the like, then you will want to pay attention to current market sentiment.

It is this sentiment which makes the difference between whether you make money or lose money. This is true in ANY market, and cryptos are no different, contrary to what I once thought just a couple years ago.

You see, I once thought that the crypto market was just “something different” and did not rely on the laws of supply and demand and market sentiments the way the stock market does.

I was very wrong about that!  I learned the hard way that the Crypto market is just another market, just like any other, and behaves the exact same way!

In speaking of the Stock Market, where he made his fortune, one of the greatest investors ever, Warren Buffett, said the market is a manic depressive.

Warren says that some days, “Mr. Market”, as he personifies it, is feeling depressed and likes to quote you low, depressed prices.  

Market Sentiment Drives Prices

On other days, Mr. Market is feeling euphoric and likes to quote you high, euphoric prices.

In other words, price mechanisms, such as the Stock Market, do nothing but that: quote prices. 

Whether prices are high or low depends on market sentiment, or its current mood of the time period.

What Warren is describing is called market sentiment, and right now, in the crypto markets, “Mr. Crypto Market” is feeling depressed.

Of course, there are many things which affect market sentiment and I am only referring to obvious market extremes, where you do not need to be a professional market analyst to see.

Its hard to judge whether prices are high or low or average so most average people will just use past market extreme swings in prices to decide this.

In this case, it would seem that crypto prices swung to high extremes in December 2017.

Mr. Crypto Market was feeling better than ever about himself at that time and quoted never-before-seen high prices.

After a couple months of this, people are fooled into thinking that his prices won’t ever come down. So more and more people buy in, believing this.

Right now, there is very low volume, which means that most participants are not in the buying mood. 

As a result, Mr. Crypto Market is feeling down and depressed about himself and is therefore quoting what we think may be low prices, compared to past price swings.  

Remember, Mr. Crypto Market is a manic depressive too, just like Mr. Stock Market!  Its just that Mr. Crypto is a lot younger than Mr. Stock Market, an infant even, and so he cries and throws temper tantrums a lot more right now, which is something called Volatility!

Like real estate, fortunes are not made on the selling, they are made on the buying! 

That means buying at lower prices before everyone else realizes how much of a deal a depressed Crypto market is throwing out.

When is the best time to buy? 

Warren Buffett also says that the best times to buy is when “blood is running in the streets”.  

Blood running only happens when things look bleak and no one is interested, like right after the bottom fell out of the previous all time high price set back in Dec 2017, and created panic selling. 

But to buy when “blood is running in the streets”, its also smart to wait until after the panic selling period is over. 

That time is now, I believe, as of June 29, 2018 when Mr. Crypto Market quoted us the current bottom-most price since Oct 2017.  

He really felt like sh*t that day!  

Though we could still see an even lower price than June 2018 in our future, I believe that Mr. Crypto is now starting, or is getting ready to start, his consolidation act.  Update: It took another 6 months to hit the actual bottom on Dec. 15, 2018.

This is the time period that comes just after the “blood running” has run its course, which could be from Jan 2018 – Present, and sets the stage leading up to the next stealth bull and boom when Mr. Crypto Market will be feeling his best again.

Right now, Mr. Crypto is feeling the worse he has been for about a year now, and this is the opportunity. 

Even if we think the blood running stage is over, it sure didn’t feel good.  He’s lost a lot of blood in the previous binge, and Mr. Crypto will still need more time to recover.

Because of this, Mr. Crypto’s manic depressive disorder is in full swing to the down side and he is currently quoting almost everything under the sun at seriously discounted prices from what he was giving us back in Dec 2017.

This “consolidation” phase, which I believe we are currently just starting as of Nov 2018, could still take another 2 years to play out. The last one did exactly that from 2015 – 2017, just after its sharp downfall period from 2014 – 2015.

Problem is, no one believes prices will ever go back up during the beginning of Mr. Crypto’s consolidation act. 

Update (Nov 2020): 8 months after the COVID crash of March 2020, I believe we are now, or soon will be, just coming out of this stealth bull phase.

Update (Sep 2023): We now know that we reached a top just 5 months later in April 2021, after my previous 2020 update, and then a double top 7 months after that in Nov 2021 before the bottom fell out again!

A Bitcoin Stealth Bull Market?

When prices do start to creep back up, as they did in Oct 2015, no one realizes it because they got so used to the sideways action in prices which had gone on for over 12 months. (Sideways action is when prices trend at nearly the same price range for a long period of time, i.e. consolidation)

This consolidation phase, at much lower than previous prices, fools people into thinking that this is where prices are going to stay forever.  

Just as they thought prices were going to stay high forever during the Crypto Boom of 2017, and the Real Estate Boom of 2007, and the Dot Com Boom of 1999.

But this consolidation is exactly what’s needed to clear out the cobwebs, and will lead to what’s called a new “stealth” bull market, a steady but virtually unnoticed creeping up in the price that no one sees coming, even when it starts happening. 

This is exactly what happened between Oct 2015 – Aug 2017. 

20/20 hindsight tells us that a new “stealth” bull market had begun roughly around Oct 2015, and the sentiment at the time was just as it is now, depressing and uninteresting.

I do not believe we are in a new stealth bull phase yet, but I do believe we are in the phase immediately preceding it.

Comparing to the last cycle, I’d say we are in around the period that parallels Jan – Sept 2015.

This was a lull period of sideways prices and depression just before a new stealth bull began.

I think this is the phase we are entering and that’s why I believe the time to start buying crypto digital assets is right now.

I also believe prices WILL go back up when Mr. Crypto’s manic depressive disorder swings back into “feeling good” followed by “euphoria”, but we’re still a ways away from that because Mr. Crypto’s euphoria was so great back in Dec 2017 that he’s still hung over!

The trick is to BUY when he is still feeling down in the dumps and hung over, like in 2015 and right now (Nov 2018), and then SELL when he is feeling as high as a kite and in full party mood, like he was at the end of 2017.

During times of Mr. Crypto’s euphoria, casual observers start clamoring into the market at any price because of good old fashion greed, or what they now call FOMO, the Fear Of Missing Out.

These people are called the “dumb money”, and this euphoria stage is always the best time to SELL to them! 

This is exactly how big institutional investors, i.e. the “smart money”, get richer because they understand this.

But you, now knowing how manic depressive Mr. Crypto Market is, only buy when he is feeling depressed and consolidating his much lower prices than the previous highs.

Right now, I believe, is that time to pick up whatever crypto assets you had your eyes on but start with Bitcoin first, since that one is still top dog. 

BUY Bitcoin Before the Big Money Does

My recommendation: Accumulate Bitcoin, and others, during this consolidation phase over the next 1-2 years. Don’t worry about selling until Mr. Crypto Market is feeling euphoric again!

Remember that fortunes can never be made by buying into euphoria. You need to be buying and accumulating during Mr. Crypto’s depressed consolidation act, when no one wants to see it, like right now, and patiently wait for his sure-to-happen mood swing to the upside, when everyone wants a seat!

The “smart money”, institutions and their big institutional investors, are accumulating right now as we speak. 

This is exactly how the smart money makes their fortunes over and over again.

Mr. Jamie Dimon (pictured above) loves to talk down Bitcoin publicly while his company, JP Morgan Chase’s application for a Bitcoin “alternative” was rejected 175 times, and while also starting a trading desk for Bitcoin in 2018.  

This institutional “hating” on Bitcoin is done on purpose and for 2 main reasons: #1) They feel they completely missed the Crypto Boom of 2017, and they are right! #2) Having suffered from #1, they now want to buy Bitcoin at the lowest prices possible.

Feeding fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) into public channels, controlled by themselves, as Mr. Jamie Dimon does, is a very good way for them to keep prices lower for a time.

Don’t buy their FUD by not participating. That’s exactly what they want!

Instead, do what they are secretly doing themselves and BUY Bitcoin as well, while Mr. Crypto Market is still in a depressed state! He will not remain that way forever.

I personally store my crypto on a Trezor hardwallet.

Cheers,

Mike J Anthony

P.S. Once Mr. Crypto wakes up from his stupor, and he will, it will be too late for you to buy then. Take advantage now! 

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